One of the nation's leading long-range meteorologists is predicting an increased chance of hurricane problems this year for the Carolinas coast.
Joe Bastardi, Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster for Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather, said his preliminary 2008 hurricane season forecast shows a higher likelihood than in recent years of a landfalling storm on the Southeast Coast.
He said conditions are similar to those in 1999, when Hurricane Floyd wreaked havoc in eastern North Carolina.
Bastardi's prediction counters that of a pair of N.C. State University scientists who say the Gulf Coast will experience the most tropical troubles in 2008.
Overall, Bastardi said there will be slightly more storms than normal in the Atlantic Basin this year.
His forecast is much the same as that of Colorado State University tropical weather experts Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, who predicted a busier-than-normal season.
Unlike the Colorado State specialists, however, Bastardi has developed a system of predicting the coastal areas most at risk of experiencing a tropical storm or hurricane.
Bastardi said above-average water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and a weakening La Nina condition are key factors in his 2008 season prediction.
"The warming is not uniform across the entire Atlantic," Bastardi said. "In some areas where hurricanes normally form -- the central and eastern tropical Atlantic -- ocean water temperatures are near or below normal. This should limit the number of storms, so we do not expect a near-record high number like the 2005 season."
However, he added, "The warmest waters, relative to normal, will be in the northern areas of the Atlantic, especially toward the North American continent. This could potentially increase the threat of major landfalls to the U.S. coast."
Bastardi said he and fellow forecasters have noticed a tendency for tropical systems to "bunch" in certain areas. He said last season's bunching happened in the northern Caribbean.
"This year, early indications show that the spread will move north and east, with a target closer to the Southeast U.S.," he said.
AccuWeather meteorologists say they are looking at 1955, 1996 and 1999 as years that had similar characteristics to this year. A look at those years ...
1955: Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit the Outer Banks and farther south along the North Carolina coast.
1996: Hurricane Bertha made landfall near Wilmington, and Hurricane Fran struck near Cape Fear.
1999: Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd made landfall along the N.C. coast. The combination of precipitation from Hurricane Floyd and a nearby stalled frontal system produced devastating rainfall in eastern North Carolina.
Earlier this month, Dr. Lian Xie of N.C. State and graduate student Elinor Keith issued their annual prediction for 2008, saying they expect an above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes (13 to 15), with six to eight of those becoming hurricanes. They predicted one or two named storms will make landfall on the Southeast coast.
Xie's methodology also incorporates ocean water temperatures, along with a number of other variables.
