Charlotte.com: Stan Olson

Varitek as an All-Star points out flaws of selection

Sun, 13 Jul 2008 06:38 EDT

So Jason Varitek is an All-Star.

The Boston Red Sox catcher was named to the AL squad for Tuesday's game, despite a batting average in freefall (.220 entering Saturday) and having thrown out just 16percent of potential base stealers.

You can't be less all-star-worthy than Varitek is; some believe he's the worst selection in the game's history.

Since he's a reserve and fans vote in the starters, the first reaction of many was to blame AL manager Terry Francona, who also is Varitek's manager with the Red Sox. But this isn't Francona's fault; since 2003, the players have picked most of the reserves, including Varitek, named to back up Minnesota's Joe Mauer.

For years, the fans have been criticized for making uninformed picks. They had even lost the right to name the starters following a 1957 ballot box-stuffing fiasco that saw them pick eight starters from a mediocre Cincinnati team.

Commissioner Ford Frick overturned that, replacing three Reds with future Hall of Famers Stan Musial, Hank Aaron and Willie Mays.

Voting for the starters was returned to the fans in 1970, and they have botched it up on occasion, usually voting for a sentimental favorite (see Cal Ripken Jr. in 2001) over younger and more deserving players.

But the fans never messed one up this badly.

Varitek has had a fine career, and is one of the best-liked and most respected players in the league. And most of the players did indeed vote for Mauer, the most deserving candidate.

But since the fans had voted Mauer onto the team, the rules gave the backup spot to the players' second choice – Varitek, when it should have been Chicago's A.J. Pierzynski, Tampa Bay's Dioner Navarro or Oakland's Kurt Suzuki.

Here's the problem: Most of the players know Varitek, either personally or through reputation. Many might not even be aware yet of Navarro or Suzuki, first-year starters having breakthrough seasons. And while Pierzynski is a veteran, his combative nature has made him enemies throughout the league.

So hey, let's vote for good old “Tek.”

This result makes one thing obvious; many players – like many fans – don't exactly research their ballots thoroughly. My bet is many vote for friends or, like those fans, on the basis of reputation.

This needs to be fixed, particularly since the game now determines home-field advantage in the World Series. Two things can make it workable.

First, let the fans continue to pick the starters. But have the managers select the remainder of the 32-player teams, as was done through 2002. That will make it easier to add the most deserving players, correcting any fans' mistakes.

Also, get rid of the rule that insists that every team have a representative. There are 30 teams now, not the 16 that existed when that legislation was created. This year, Francona had six selections – four had to go to teams that had no players selected by either fans or their peers.

Do those two things and the All-Star Game at last will be filled with genuine all-stars again.

Project 2012 ... These 11 will deliver

Sat, 05 Jul 2008 23:56 EDT

Say you were given the enjoyable task of creating a world champion team by 2012 – and allowed to do so by picking a starting lineup, a right-handed and left-handed starting pitcher and a closer from all of baseball.

The goal would be to build a squad that could compare to the Yankees of the mid-20th century – a dynasty that would produce titles in 2012 and a half-dozen years beyond. This, with the players' current team and age included, would be my team:

1B–ADRIAN GONZALEZ, San Diego, 26:

Hardly anyone even knows his name (is San Diego still in the league?), but Gonzalez is getting better by the year. One of the NL's home run leaders despite playing in spacious Petco Park. Milwaukee's Prince Fielder would also be a strong candidate here.

2B–IAN KINSLER, Texas, 26:

He just turned 26. Developing into an outstanding speed/power/average combination in the shadow of guys like Chase Utley, who was a bit too old for my group at 29. Now Kinsler just needs to stay healthy.

3B–RYAN BRAUN, Milwaukee, 24:

A truly tough call on this one, but I'm going with Braun over David Wright because he's a year younger, and I want to stretch my dynasty out as long as I can. Both hit for power and average, and both can run. If you're wondering where A-Rod is, he turns 36 in 2012.

SS–HANLEY RAMIREZ, Florida, 24:

Developing into the best combination of power and speed in the majors. By the time my boys win that first World Series in 2012, Ramirez will already be a future Hall of Fame lock.

RF–JAY BRUCE, Cincinnati, 21:

We've only been watching him for a few weeks, but his combination of power, speed and baseball savvy is the real thing. By 2012, a typical Bruce season will include 35 home runs, 120 RBIs and a .315 batting average.

CF–GRADY SIZEMORE, Cleveland, 26:

A gamer like Derek Jeter who runs and hits for power, and whose batting average should improve with experience. If he stays in shape, should give my team a half-dozen good years.

LF–JOSH HAMILTON, Texas, 27:

I wish he were a bit younger, but he tossed away a few seasons to drugs. Now that he's straight, his remarkable talent makes him impossible to leave off.

C–BRIAN MCCANN, Atlanta, 24:

He does everything well behind the plate, hits for power and in the clutch. And he'll only be better four years from now. A dark horse candidate is Seattle rookie Jeff Clement.

RHP–EDINSON VOLQUEZ, Cincinnati, 24:

Got it right this year after a couple of terrible seasons with Texas. Throws his fastball and a wicked changeup with the same motion, and few batters have figured it out. The Giants' Tim Lincecum would be an acceptable substitute.

LHP–COLE HAMELS, Philadelphia, 24:

Ridiculous stuff, and his control is improving by the year. The makeup of an ace, which he has quickly become. Tampa Bay's Scott Kazmir could fill in, if necessary.

CL—JOAKIM SORIA, Kansas City, 24:

He developed into a shutdown closer while no one outside of Kansas City was noticing. Great control and dominant stuff. Or maybe the Angels' Francisco Rodriguez, still just 26 himself, will become the next Mariano Rivera.

You never know how a team, even one projected to be as good as this one, will turn out. Injuries to a couple of key players, and the inability to live up to projections by others, could short-circuit the whole thing.

But I like my chances.

A few of my favorite things (without the whiskers on kittens)

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 01:43 EDT

I love lists. In a heartbeat, I'll give you my top 10 favorite songs, movies, cities, U.S. Presidents, whatever. I'm assuming it's a guy thing; my wife hates lists. My favorite list ingredient came from Carolina Panther Geoff Hangartner, who had among his top five foods, “pork chop on a stick.”

So, with mid-season approaching, I offer my 10 favorite things about the 2008 baseball season, in reverse order:

10 No team has offered a job to Barry Bonds. I was afraid someone, lured by his obscene on-base percentage, would. But I think baseball wants to move past his time as quickly as possible. And no Sammy or Roger, either. Sweet.

9 No ridiculous home run totals. No one will hit 60 this year. I used to love guys pushing toward 50, until the '90s, when it seemed every power hitter was doing it. We seem to be moving back to more realistic totals, and here's hoping the steroids era was merely a nasty blip on the history of the game.

8 The St. Louis Cardinals. These guys were supposed to be toast in the tough NL Central. Top pitcher Chris Carpenter is out and their hammer, first baseman Albert Pujols, has been battling injuries all year. And yet there they are, in contention for a playoff berth.

7 The Washington Nationals. Washington had an original franchise in the AL known as the Senators and sometimes called the “Nats” for short, as are these guys. The current National League bunch is living up – or down – to its history, which gave rise to the expression, “Washington: first in war, first in peace and last in the American League.” The natural order restored.

6 My fantasy teams. I'm in first place in both leagues as of this writing, which should jinx that. My buddy Tom Sorensen likes to write about his talent at things like this, but somehow it never comes up that I consistently beat him when we're in the same competition. And yet we remain true and long-time friends.

5 Watching Adam Dunn play the outfield. We have many chances to do this with Cincinnati dominating our Charlotte-area cable package this year, and observing the massive Dunn surround a fly ball and occasionally catch it can be remarkably entertaining.

4 All the good young pitchers. They suddenly seem to be everywhere; Edinson Volquez in Cincinnati, Tim Lincecum in San Francisco, Cole Hamels in Philadelphia and Scott Kazmir in Tampa Bay, just to name a few. Young fireballers restoring baseball's balance.

3 The Tampa Bay Rays. In the AL East, a division that seemingly has always belonged to the Yankees and Red Sox by order of the baseball gods, the Rays are threatening to win the darned thing. And after they had been condemned to finish last in the group for all time.

2 Josh Hamilton. His career seemed to have been swallowed up before it began by an unshakable drug habit, but Hamilton broke free. And now “The Natural,” as unlikely as it is , has quickly become one of the game's best players. And he's from North Carolina (Raleigh).

1 The Cubs. For decades, they were expected to lose and did. Then, in recent years, they were expected to win and didn't. Now, finally, it all seems to be working, and one of baseball's best-loved teams might actually be heading to the World Series.

Triple Crown in 2008?

Sat, 21 Jun 2008 23:05 EDT

Last week, we talked about trying to hit .400, so call this Part II of a series, because it's almost as difficult to win baseball's Triple Crown.

The Triple Crown goes to a player who leads his league in batting average, home runs and RBIs in the same season. No one has done that since 1967, when Boston's Carl Yastrzemski topped the American league with 44 homers, 121 RBIs and a .326 average.

Winning the Triple Crown is easier than hitting .400, but that doesn't make it easy.

There has been just one .400 hitter – Ted Williams in 1941 – since 1930, but the Triple Crown has been won seven times since then. And how about this? Two of those seven were accomplished by Williams, lending credence to those who think he was the best hitter ever.

In fact, Williams missed winning a third TC by one hit.

After accomplishing the feat in 1942 and '47, Williams led the AL with 43 home runs and 159 RBIs in '49. He was also ahead in batting average going into the season's final day, but went hitless to lose that title to Detroit third baseman George Kell.

Both hitters finished at a rounded-off .343, but by carrying their marks out to a fourth digit, Kell won, .3429 to .3427.

Think about that; Williams almost turned the trick three times, and no one in baseball has done it even a single time in more than four decades.

One reason is that many power hitters swing so hard to generate power that they pile up more strikeouts than hits. And many high-average players are considered “contact hitters” – they concentrate more on consistently connecting with the pitch than on driving it for distance.

It's the difference between, say, Cincinnati bopper Adam Dunn and Seattle hitting machine Ichiro Suzuki.

In every generation, though, there are a special few that can hit for both power and average. Williams was the model, and current examples include Atlanta's Chipper Jones, Philadelphia's Chase Utley and Detroit's Magglio Ordonez.

But the guy with the best chance to win the TC this year – at least in the National League – is probably Houston's Lance Berkman. He's currently among the league's top five in all three categories.

The AL has an even longer shot – because this is only his second full season – in Texas outfielder Josh Hamilton. But Hamilton, a North Carolina native, is an amazing talent; he leads all of baseball in RBIs and has spent much of the year topping the league home-run list. While his batting average is in the lower .300s, nobody in the league is all that far ahead of him.

If he has a strong September, he could conceivably finish at .325 or even .330, and if his power numbers hold, he could become the first TC winner since Yaz.

And in the process, join a group that is almost as exclusive as the .400 club.

Braves star keeps his eye on .400

Sun, 15 Jun 2008 07:46 EDT

Can Chipper Jones hit .400?

No major league player has done so since Ted Williams reached .406 in 1941; and there have been only a few semi-close calls. Tony Gwinn hit .394 in 1994, but a strike shortened the season by almost a third. Rod Carew hit .388 in 1977, and three years later George Brett finished at .390, prompting much of the country to pay attention.

Otherwise, nothing. No one has even reached .375 in a full season since Brett did so, 28 years ago.

Jones, Atlanta's 36-year-old third baseman and team leader, is still well above the legendary .400 mark with the season's halfway point fast approaching. Through Thursday, and despite various nagging injuries, he was hitting .414 in 61 games, and had not been under .400 since April 12.

Jones keeps saying it's too early to talk about reaching the fabled mark, that such questions should wait for August or September.

He's right, of course; he hasn't faced a significant slump yet, and slumps seem to hit everyone sooner or later. And no player of his age has ever reached .400. The oldest was Ty Cobb, who hit .401 when he was 35 in 1922.

Also consider that while Jones is a consistent .300 hitter with a career mark of .310, prior to this summer his highest season average was .337, reached just last year.

Jones, always a student of hitting, seems to be improving by the year. Unlike so many sluggers, he's a master of making adjustments to the ways pitchers are working him.

Watch him take a two-strike pitch on the outside corner of the strike zone and slap it to the opposite field for a single. So many hitters take the same pitch and try to pull it out of the park, prompting a weak grounder or a strikeout.

Jones, by the way, has never even struck out 100 times in a season, a figure that's almost mandatory these days for power hitters. Through Thursday, his whiff total stood at 26.

It's tougher to hit .400 today. For one thing, there's the jet lag involved with criss-crossing the country. The old-timers never played a game farther west than St. Louis. For another, high-powered closers and set-up men have changed the game dramatically.

It once was a point of honor for a starting pitcher to complete a game, which meant a hitter would be at least somewhat familiar with the guy's pitches when he faced him for the third or fourth time.

Now, instead of getting another look at the same pitcher, the batter is more likely to face one, two or three relievers, each with dramatically different stuff.

Finally, gloves are bigger and of higher quality and, as athletes improve, fielders are faster and more agile. Just watch Web Gems on ESPN's Baseball Tonight on any given evening, and consider how many hits are lost.

Yet here is Chipper, all the way up there at .414 as we hit the middle of June. Making us wonder. Making us hope.

It's most likely that Jones will fade with the summer's heat, finally finishing at .350 or maybe .360. We all know that for him to become the game's first .400 hitter in 67 years is highly improbable.

But not impossible.

This year's rays of hope

Sun, 08 Jun 2008 08:07 EDT

You might have never heard of Edinson Volquez. He pitches for the small-market Cincinnati Reds, who have been for the most part, well, terrible, in recent years. And Volquez himself was terrible in recent years for Texas, his obvious ability obscured by a poor attitude and an inability to consistently find the strike zone.

Last year, in fact, he was so bad he was sent all the way down to Class A for a time, to ride the buses with the 19-year-olds and figure out how to be a professional ballplayer.

Volquez finally did so, and the Reds were watching. In winter trade talks, they told the Rangers that the only way they would part with remarkably talented outfielder Josh Hamilton was if Volquez were included in the deal. Texas agreed.

In spring training this year, all anyone who followed Cincy talked about was rookie pitcher Johnny Cueto. All Volquez did was keep getting batters out.

Then, when the season started and Cueto was allowing homers in bunches, Volquez (shouldn't we be calling him "The Volt?") just got better and better.

Now, after Wednesday night's seven shutout innings in Philadelphia, Volquez is 8-2. More amazingly, he has not allowed more than two earned runs or pitched fewer than five innings in any of his 12 starts. Baseball prospectus says the modern record for such a streak is 14.

Want more? Volquez leads the majors in ERA (1.32) and strikeouts (91).

To me, such performances might be the best thing about baseball. Every season produces stunning surprises. The aforementioned Hamilton, from Raleigh, was the same such story last year, bouncing back from drug addiction to earn the nickname "The Natural." This year, he's making a run at AL Most Valuable Player with the Rangers.

And then there are the Tampa Bay Rays, not to be confused with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, which they were prior to this season. The Devil has been exorcised from the team's name, taking the franchise's losing ways with him.

In fact, in the Rays' offices, there's reportedly a $1 fine if you slip and call them the Devil Rays.

Whatever; as the Devil Rays, they finished last in the AL East nine times in their 10 seasons. Their best record during their first decade was 70-91.

Now here they are, battling the mighty Red Sox for first place.

The Rays have been building -- slowly, slowly -- through their farm system. First, position players like Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton and then this year, Evan Longoria, filtered into the lineup. But as with every team, pitching is the key, and now Tampa Bay has two bonafide aces in Scott Kazmir and James Shields.

Suddenly, the just-plain Rays are baseball's surprise team.

There always is one, and often payroll has nothing to do with it. Last year it was Colorado, coming out of nowhere during the season's final month to reach the World Series.

Meanwhile, new stars are popping up like May flowers. Volquez, and Pittsburgh outfielder Nate McLouth. Another outfielder, Carlos Quentin of the White Sox. And pitcher Joe Saunders of the Angels. And the latest, Reds' outfielder Jay Bruce.

Then there are the good players who have suddenly taken the next step, guys like Philadelphia's Chase Utley, starring this season as Babe Ruth, and Atlanta's Chipper Jones as Ted Williams.

The surprises play out over the long season. And pay attention; the next one could come from your team. After all, if the Rays can do it ... IN MY OPINION Stan

Olson

HR and AVG are so last week

Sun, 01 Jun 2008 08:56 EDT

"Well, his OBP is decent, but his BABIP shows he won't maintain it. Also, his LD% is way down, so I think we need to get him out of the leadoff spot in the batting order."

This is the new baseball fan talking, and for many, his jargon is just about incomprehensible.

For more than a century, the key statistics that measure baseball performance didn't change. You had batting average, runs batted in, home run totals and, for pitchers, won-lost records and earned run average.

Since the late 1970s, though, the sabermaticians -- analysts who use mathematical formulas to determine the value and production of players -- have taken virtually everything done on a baseball field and assigned a property to it.

We should explain that opening quote. OBP stands for on-base percentage, which is a batters' percentage of hits plus walks. BABIP is the batting average a player has on the balls he puts in play -- strikeouts, for instance, don't count against him. And LD% is line drive percentage, or how many of his batted balls are line drives. The more the better, of course.

There are so many more. We used to browse through the Baseball Encyclopedia looking at the basics. There was Babe Ruth's 60-homer season, and Mickey Mantle's 1956 Triple Crown, and Bob Gibson's stunning 1.12 ERA back in '68.

Now there's a different encyclopedia of the game called Total Baseball, and if you look up an individual hitter, you not only get homers and RBIs, but a half-dozen categories that you may have to look up definitions for (OPB, PRO+, BR/A, SBA, FA, FR) topped off by TPR, something that stands for Total Player Rating.

The long explanation for that is: The sum of a player's Adjusted Batting Runs (more formulas there), Fielding Runs (ditto) and Base Stealing. Runs, minus his positional adjustment, all divided by the Runs Per Win factor (yet another) for that year

The higher the better, of course.

We won't get into how all that is determined here; it would take the whole sports section.

But Oakland general manager Billy Beane was probably the first GM to take all the numbers seriously. That eventually led to numerous economical division titles for the A's and a wonderful book on the subject called "Moneyball."

While most baseball officials still largely determined a hitter's value by batting average, Beane was quick to grasp the sabermaticians' belief that on-base percentage was more important. The more times a runner is on base, the more times he will score.

Supposed a guy bats .250 (125 for 500), but with 100 walks. That's an OBP of .375. Compare that with a supposedly better hitter who hits .300 (150 for 500) but draws just 25 walks. His OPB would be .333. The first guy is more valuable to your team.

But even OBS has evolved, into OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average). The second figure adds power to the equation, giving an even better picture of a hitter's value.

Now, since Beane's success, the numbers boys are finally being taken seriously.

Bill James, the Lord of the sabermaticians, even is currently employed by the Boston Red Sox.

In baseball, the game is over, and the geeks have won. And the guys who managed by hunches and the seat of their pants can RIP.

Cal's streak won't fall

Sun, 25 May 2008 13:52 EDT

I saw a note a while back that got me to thinking about Cal Ripken Jr.

On April 27, Cleveland's Grady Sizemore was forced to sit out a game, stopping the longest active streak of consecutive major-league games played, at 382.

That 382 had been the longest current streak took me by surprise; after all, so many of us had watched Ripken for so long. And Sizemore's streak wasn't even the equivalent of three full seasons.

Cal had played almost 17 full seasons without missing a game, running his record streak to 2,632. He did not miss work from May 30, 1982 through Sept. 19, 1998.

In doing so, he broke a record many -- including me -- thought was unbreakable, Lou Gehrig's 2,130 consecutive games played. And Ripken blew past it by more games than Sizemore had played when the latter's streak ended.

With Sizemore off the books, Atlanta's Jeff Francoeur took the lead. But he was given Tuesday night off, and dropped out at 370. Now the leader is Minnesota's Delmon Young, with 212 through Friday. Hey, only 2,421 to go.

He'll never make it, and neither will anyone else.

I once said the same thing about Gehrig's "unbreakable" record, but during the past few decades, the game has changed.

Once upon a time, guys played through many injuries, feeling that if they didn't and were out too long, they might lose their jobs. Also, there was a macho aspect to it; you risked criticism for "dogging it," it seemed, with anything short of a broken bone.

Since the advent of free agency, though, salaries have spiraled endlessly upward. Good players always have been valuable to their teams, of course. But if you're paying a guy $15 million annually and he slightly pulls a hamstring, you're going to bench him until he's better rather than risk an aggravation of the injury that could shelve him for a month or more.

Ripken's career spanned a stretch of time when salaries were escalating dramatically. In 1982, when his streak started, the average player's salary was $241,497. At the end of the run, in 1998, it had risen to $1,393,831.

It's more than $3 million this season.

Another fairly recent development that snaps embryonic streaks is the "mental health day." Francoeur got one last week. If you're in a prolonged slump, managers have taken to giving you a day off to clear your head.

I don't think that's a bad idea; the short break seems to have helped a number of players get back into gear during recent years.

Ripken, though, was different.

First, he was blessed with good health. Then, he was old-school all the way, the son of career baseball coach and manager Cal Ripken. Like his dad, Cal Jr.'s way to handle slumps was to fight through them, and while he had some lengthy episodes, he always returned to form.

While changing the game as a power-hitting shortstop, Ripken would total 431 home runs and 1,695 RBIs. But he will forever be remembered for The Streak.

The continued evolution of baseball assures us it will never be broken. IN MY OPINION

Longest streaks of consecutive games played

Cal Ripken Jr. (1982-98)	2,632
Lou Gehrig (1925-39)	2130
Everett Scott (1916-25)	1,307
Steve Garvey (1975-83)	1,207
Miguel Tejada (2000-07)	1,152
Billy Williams (1963-70)	1,117
Joe Sewell (1922-30)	1,103
Stan Musial (1952-57)	895
Eddie Yost (1949-55)	829
Gus Suhr (1931-37)	822

Stan

Olson

Doing it the right way

Sun, 18 May 2008 05:50 EDT

It's clear now, perfectly clear, as hindsight always is: Gregory Alan Maddux is the best pitcher of our generation, the best that most of us have ever seen.

Maddux is 42 now, and recently won his 350th game.

He won every single one of them the right way, as opposed to Roger Clemens, who suddenly got better as he got older, thanks to performance-enhancing drugs, according to Major League Baseball's Mitchell Report.

You never had to worry about that with Maddux, whom I covered occasionally when he was an Atlanta Brave. Many days when he wasn't pitching, his conditioning program was 18 holes. Without his shirt on he looked doughy, and the glasses he sometimes wore away from the field seemed to turn him invisible when he wasn't pitching.

I never saw his fastball top 90 mph, and more often he peaked at 86 or 87. Now it sputters in the low 80s, and yet he soldiers on.

Soon Maddux will pass Clemens, he of the shattered reputation and 354 dubious wins, and then Maddux will have more victories than all but five pitchers who worked within the past century (those five are listed at the end of this column).

He has earned every one of them by pitching, not by simply firing juiced-up fastballs like so many others of his generation. Maddux would hit the inside corner, then the outside, then come back in on you again, just catching that last inch of home plate. He would change speeds, take a little off, until that 86 mph fastball you weren't expecting looked like 96.

As a batter, whatever you were expecting, you almost always got something else.

He mastered all areas of his craft, winning a record 17 Gold Gloves for his fielding (he leads all positions) and leading the NL in sacrifice bunts five times.

From 1992 through '95, Maddux won the National League's Cy Young award every year. His ERAs during that stretch were 2.18, 2.36, 1.56 and 1.63. His record for the period was 75-29.

Maddux hasn't pitched for Atlanta since 2003, but he will always be remembered as a Brave by many. His career ERA is 3.12, but his mark in 11 seasons with Atlanta was 2.63. And his winning percentage there was a franchise-record .688 (194-88).

While he will finish his career with just two 20-win seasons, he won 19 games five other times. In each of those years, he left several games with a lead after six or seven innings only to watch Atlanta's bullpen give them away.

Had Maddux been in a little better physical shape, it's possible he could have finished some of those games himself, and might be at 375 wins now. I remember several occasions when he was removed after, say, six innings and 82 pitches or so on a hot day, only to tell us afterward, "I was done."

Maddux, though, came to believe in conditioning, which is why he remains effective at 42. Not ridiculously effective, à la Clemens or Barry Bonds, but a quality major league pitcher who can still win more with brains and guile than talent.

Last season, he managed to go 14-11 for the Padres, and reached 15 victories in 18 seasons.

For that, in this age when most of our recent records were almost certainly chemically enhanced, we salute him. Because unlike many others, Maddux always did it the right way.

CAREER WINS BY 20TH-CENTURY PITCHERS: Cy Young (511), Walter Johnson (417), Grover Cleveland Alexander and Christy Mathewson (373), Walter Spahn (363). IN MY OPINION

Home of the Brave

In Maddux' 11 years with Atlanta, he climbed high in the record books of the franchise that also played in Boston and Milwaukee. His most notable achievements, and his Braves' ranking:

Single-season ERA: 1.56 (1)

Single-season won-lost percentage: .905 (1).

Single-season WHIP: .811 (1).

Career won-lost percentage: .688 (1).

Career WHIP: 1.051 (2).

Career ERA: 2.63 (7).

Career wins: 194 (7).

Career walks per 9 innings: 1.36 (3)

Career innings pitched: 2,5622/3 (8)

Career strikeouts: 1,828 (5)

Note to player's union: Nobody wants Bonds

Sun, 11 May 2008 06:49 EDT

And the Major League Baseball Players' Association probably wonders why the average fan can't stand it.

Once, long ago, almost all of us were in the MLBPA's corner, as players whose salaries averaged $19,000 annually in 1967 fought to get a bigger piece of baseball's huge financial pie.

But in the decades since, through numerous strikes and considerable intransigence, the MLBPA has simply commandeered that pie. Now more than 60 percent of the game's revenues go to the players. Everyone else -- owners, front office staff, grounds crew, minor leaguers, etc., share the rest.

This year, the average player's salary topped $3 million for the first time.

And yet it's never enough for the MLBPA and its leader, Donald Fehr (and loathing). The organization always seems ready to find something certain to tick off those of us who support the game.

The latest incident concerns Barry Bonds, whom I was hoping never to mention again in one of these columns.

Last week, the association "expressed concern" to the baseball commissioner's office over the lack of offers to Bonds, asking for additional information about the offseason's free-agent market.

"We've raised both general concerns and some player-specific concerns," said association counsel Michael Weiner. He added that Bonds was only player specifically brought up in discussions. The implication, of course, was that BarryRoid was a victim of collusion by the game's clubs.

Uh, Mike and Don, let me explain this to you from the viewpoint of a club owner and a general manager:

• Virtually everyone inside and out of the game believes Bonds took steroids. The federal government is so certain of this that it has indicted him on perjury charges for saying he didn't. Because of the court case hanging over him, he would be a huge distraction for any team that signs him.

• Bonds is 43 now, and while he'd likely still be somewhat effective, there's that trade-off. Especially for a team -- like San Francisco, his former club -- that is trying to build with youth.

• Bonds, bulky and slow, can no longer play in the field -- for the past few years, he never played day games following night games, even though his left field job consisted mostly of standing around.

Which means that only AL teams, with their designated hitters, were candidates to sign him to begin with, reducing his chances by more than half.

• Last but in no way least, Bonds is a terrible teammate. He's a me-first guy who props his expensive leather recliner in front of his three lockers (at least he did with the Giants) and does what he wants, when he wants.

His managers there deferred to him -- after all, he was the face of baseball in San Francisco -- but find me another manager who would want that spilling all over their team chemistry.

And, Mike and Don, even the Giants, for whom he set that tainted, shameful all-time home run record, didn't want him back this year.

Guys, that doesn't sound anything like collusion.

It sounds like common sense.

Hopefully, finally, we've seen the last of Barry Bonds, and someday in the not-too-distant future, we'll see his record obliterated as well.

Until then, and for a change, I truly hope the MLBPA thinks before picking its fights.

IN MY OPINION Stan

Olson

Awaiting greatness

Sun, 04 May 2008 10:07 EDT

Now it's Max Scherzer's turn to be baseball's Next Big Thing.

Scherzer, a right-handed pitcher for Arizona, was promoted to the major leagues and then tossed into his first game last Tuesday. Pitching in relief, he faced 13 Houston batters and retired all 13, striking out seven. The radar guns clocked his fastball topping out at 98 mph.

The Astros didn't put the ball in fair territory until their sixth hitter faced him, and hit just one out of the infield, a fly to left.

That was enough for the Diamondbacks; they shipped Edgar Gonzalez to the bullpen and announced that Scherzer, 23, will move into the rotation, starting at home Monday against Philadelphia.

In baseball, we love the Next Big Thing.

The NBT is usually a pitcher, and almost always has a fastball that -- at least in hearsay -- approaches triple digits. That's because in baseball, starting pitcher is really the only position that can dominate a game; if he pitches well, his team likely wins.

And so we wait on the next one, the next Pedro Martinez or Bob Gibson or Johan Santana, NBTs who quickly morphed into BTs, to flash and sizzle above the baseball firmament.

For awhile last summer, it was the Yankees' Phil Hughes, but there were injuries and a poor start this year and now another trip to the disabled list, and his NBT status has been put on hold, maybe forever.

For awhile this spring, it was the Reds' Johnny Cueto, and he might yet live up to the promise. But he is just 22 (all NBTs are young, often very young) and his beginning has recently included some rocky starts.

For them, though, there is still hope. Unlike so many others, the Bill Pulsiphers and David Clydes, the Brien Taylors and Matt Andersons of the game. Some simply broke down, victims of torn muscles or pulled tendons. Others never quite figured out the three Cs -- command, control and confidence -- needed to be effective at the highest level.

Maybe the NBT to have the most immediate success was the Mets' Dwight Gooden, a 19-year-old shooting star in the summer of 1984. Gooden was 17-9 that year, with a remarkable 276 strikeouts in 218 innings pitched.

He was even better (24-4, 1.53 ERA) the following season, and many of us thought Gibson had returned. But while Gooden would finish with 194 victories, he was never that good again.

Most NBTs never live up to such promise, and how could they? Because of that, the ones who do are so much more intriguing.

NBTs are almost never quite as good as we expected when they arrive, as their talent battles with youth and inexperience. Which makes Scherzer's first try truly surprising. We had heard the rumblings out of Tucson; in four starts in Class AAA, he had allowed three earned runs in 23 innings. He had struck out 38 and walked three.

But Class AAA isn't the majors. Except that last Tuesday, it was. Scherzer was dominating, and more than anyone could have expected.

So now we wait for Monday night, hoping to see if Max Scherzer really is the Next Big Thing.

A new source for power

Sun, 27 Apr 2008 07:21 EDT

So who hits home runs, anyway?

We know that throughout baseball history, the bigger players -- naturally being more powerful -- usually hit more long balls. When weightlifting and conditioning began to become popular in the 1970s and '80s, more home runs were hit. And then, in the '90s, homer totals exploded with the use of steroids.

Even if fewer players are using performance-enhancing drugs in the wake of the Mitchell Report, balls are still flying out of ballparks. Players are still stronger from all that working out, and each new stadium seems smaller than its predecessor. Finally, baseball says Human Growth Hormone is against the rules, but still isn't testing for it.

Added strength has spread itself across the game.

For many years, only certain fielding positions were expected to provide power in a lineup. Corner outfielders were, ever since Babe Ruth. First basemen were, ever since Lou Gehrig. Gradually, third basemen (Eddie Mathews, Mike Schmidt) were as well.

For decades, center fielders were usually speed guys with little power who stole bases and covered ground the big boppers on either side of them couldn't reach -- call it the Richie Ashburn Syndrome.

Ashburn was a wonderful player with a knack of fouling off pitches he disliked. He once starred for Philadelphia, winning two batting titles and once leading the league in stolen bases. In 15 seasons, he hit 29 home runs.

The Yankees' Joe DiMaggio, and later Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays and Duke Snider -- contemporaries of Ashburn -- changed that to a degree.

Catchers ran the show on the field, and any pop they provided was considered a bonus. Then came Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella.

Through it all, though, middle infielders were usually little guys who stabilized the defense and gobbled up ground balls. If they could hit for average like Luke Appling or run like Luis Aparicio, that was simply an added bonus.

Most were more like Cincinnati's Roy McMillan, a great glove at shortstop who played 16 seasons and finished with 68 home runs and a batting average of .243.

It isn't that way anymore.

Guys like Milwaukee's Robin Yount and Baltimore's Cal Ripken Jr. changed the mold for shortstops in the 1980s, and the position has been evolving ever since, through Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra and Alex Rodriguez.

Second base has had a metamorphosis as well, thanks to the Cubs' Ryne Sandberg, who paved the way for the Chase Utleys of today.

Now, if a slugger is athletic enough, you can find him at any position.

You can find home runs everywhere. But it wasn't always so, as the list below points out. IN MY OPINION

Home Runs By Position

From 1876 (the first year of the National League) through 2007, as compiled by David Vincent, the Bill James of the long ball, for the Baseball Almanac. Notice the gap between middle infielders and every other position:

Pos.	Runs
1B	37,222
2B	15,874
SS	14,462
3B	26,665
LF	33,719
CF	27,006
RF	34,506
C	22,973
DH	9,296
P	3,623
PH	4,961

Stan

Olson

Braves have that playoff look again

Sun, 30 Mar 2008 16:05 EDT

Is the Atlanta Braves' divisional dynasty done, once and for all?

It appeared that way last year, as the Braves stepped aside for the NL East champion Phillies and the runner-up Mets.

While Atlanta slipped to third, Philadelphia and New York seemed to improve by leaps and bounds. And during the offseason, the Mets added Johan Santana, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, to their rotation.

So after an incredible run of 14 straight division titles (1991-2005), it's "see ya later Bravos," right?

It's a question that resonates in the Charlotte area, where many consider the Braves their "home" team. And it's a question that might not have to be answered in the negative.

Two players are keys to whether Atlanta contends this season.

One you might never have heard of -- Yunel Escobar, the heir apparent at shortstop to the departed Edgar Renteria. The Braves were so confident in Escobar, who is 25 and hit .326 in 94 games with an excellent .385 on-base percentage as a rookie, they felt they could afford to deal the talented Renteria to Detroit.

Escobar has better range than his predecessor and could also steal 20 bases if manager Bobby Cox gives him the green light. He and second baseman Kelly Johnson make up an inexperienced but talented double-play combination.

Right now, Cox has Escobar penciled in to the bottom of the lineup to keep the pressure off of him, but he could eventually move to the top to take advantage of that on-base percentage and speed.

You might vaguely remember the other crucial player for Atlanta. Once upon a time, left-hander Mike Hampton signed the richest contract ever for a pitcher, with Colorado, then spent much of its length first getting hit and then getting hurt.

He's been with Atlanta for three seasons, and never been healthy enough to pitch 200 innings. Last season, Hampton worked just 691/3 innings, and now he's 35.

He's also finally healthy again, and coming off a good spring. If he can find a good portion of the stuff that once allowed him to win 22 games for Houston, the Braves' rotation will be better than the Phillies' and competitive with the Mets'.

Remember, it's a group that starts with John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, both of whom have ace capabilities. Then there's the experienced Tom Glavine. The rotation is likely to be completed by youngster Jair Jurrjens, who had a solid spring.

The bullpen, with Rafael Soriano as closer, should be capable if Mike Gonzalez can stay healthy when he returns from elbow surgery in June. And the lineup is of playoff-caliber, led by veteran third baseman Chipper Jones and slugging first baseman Mark Teixeira.

Fill in around them with catcher Brian McCann, a quality bat and glove who gets better every year, and center fielder Mark Kotsay, a contact hitter who replaces the inconsistent Andruw Jones. And finally, let's see if Cox lets Matt Diaz play every day in left. When he did play last season, Diaz hit .338.

The divisional title streak might have been stopped, but there's no reason the Braves can't start another one -- if Escobar can be what they hope he will be and Hampton can be what he used to be. IN MY OPINION Stan

Olson